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Fukuda up?
I wrote earlier that I wasn’t so sure about Aso becoming the next prime minister. The papers yesterday had lots to say about the LDP’s wrasslin’ match—particularly the evening sports rags, which were filled with exciting stuff from LDP faction bosses (Aso? Not on our watch) and Koizumi (”I am 100% certain that I won’t be running for the presidency,” a disappointing message for the Koizumi Children who are enjoying their first terms in the Diet courtesy of his expansive coattails).
No time to write much today, but there are good posts talking about Aso’s waning chances at the prime ministership and Fukuda Yasuo’s rising fortunes at Shisaku, Observing Japan, and GlobalTalk 21.
Reformer without friends?
Abe had a reform agenda, he just had zero skill in actually communicating it to the public, or pushing it through his own party. This is a theme I’ve seen in some recent commentary. Clay Chandler, the Asia editor for Fortune, writes in this post about someone else who agrees:
As news of Abe’s abdication broke, Fortune International Editor Robert Friedman and I happened to meet with Heizo Takenaka, the economics professor who served as economic policy czar under Abe’s predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi. Takenaka, who withdrew from politics after Abe replaced Koizumi, speculated Abe had finally come to grips with the fact that he had no allies within the party. “I am sympathetic to him,” said Takenaka. “He is a reformer. But he was surrounded by enemies.” Takenaka fears Abe’s departure could be the death knell for economic reforms championed by Koizumi. “I’m quite concerned about the effect this could have on economic policy,” he said. “Politicians from the old guard are coming back. The policy tribes have returned. Interest groups pushing for more public spending see their chance.”
Now that the DPJ has found it can win elections by promising pork to the countryside, will the LDP jump back into that same game? The country’s productive urban residents might once again get the rubber end of the plunger as the resources flow into the nonperforming sinkholes of rural Japan.
LDP tug-of-war
With Abe out, the search for his follower begins. The Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election (which effectively decides who gets that kantei office) is set for September 19, with campaigning to begin five days earlier. A snap election that guarantees no surprise candidates, since the only viable ones are those whose support bases are already lined up.
The LDP may be about to take part in a strenuous tug-of-war match between its members who think that venturing into strange (to the party) seas of reform while Koizumi was at the helm robbed it of its traditional strength, and those who believe instead that Abe weakened the party by failing to follow that Koizumi course in a visible fashion. Aso Taro, whom many are calling the front-runner in the race this time around, appeared to come out on the former side when he was tapped to serve as LDP Secretary-General at the end of August, and was quoted as saying: 「自民党は一度、自民党をぶっ壊すという人を選んで、事実、ぶっ壊れた。あとの自民党をどう立て直すかが3人に与えられた役割だ」 (The LDP in the past chose a person who promised to smash the party, and it ended up broken. Our [the three politicians put in top party slots] task now is to find a way to put the party back together). Sounds to me like a rejection of the Koizumi course, although he may have meant otherwise. Politicians speak with forked tongue and all that.
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